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  LiveWire / Teen Forums / The Intellectual Forum / Viewing Topic

If the U.S. fell
What would Happen?
Replies: 26Last Post Dec. 19, 2006 11:15pm by Apotheosis
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dreamweaver


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Where one empire falls, another rises.

As the USA may be a huge empire right now and if it falls somehow, I 'm sure another will rise to take over.  Historically proven.

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9:24 pm on Dec. 18, 2006 | Joined June 2004 | 1002 Days Active
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norock


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HISTORICALLY, the world has never been so interdependant upon surrounding nations. china only in the last half a century has come out of its shell, and japan as well. europe is more intertwined than ever before. and the US is a major part of that.

Yes, another nation would follow. but it would most likely be (historically) comunist if anything.

although i dont see it very possible that the US could "Fall"

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9:37 pm on Dec. 18, 2006 | Joined Dec. 2006 | 343 Days Active
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Cumulonimbus


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Quote: from dreamweaver at 12:24 am on Dec. 19, 2006

Where one empire falls, another rises.  

As the USA may be a huge empire right now and if it falls somehow, I 'm sure another will rise to take over.  Historically proven.


And Europe was doing so well when Rome fell.

Post edited at 8:55 am on Dec. 19, 2006 by Cumulonimbus

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8:54 am on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Jan. 2005 | 643 Days Active
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Apotheosis



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Quote: from norock at 12:37 am on Dec. 19, 2006

HISTORICALLY, the world has never been so interdependant upon surrounding nations. china only in the last half a century has come out of its shell, and japan as well. europe is more intertwined than ever before. and the US is a major part of that.

Yes, another nation would follow. but it would most likely be (historically) comunist if anything.  

although i dont see it very possible that the US could "Fall"


If the US doesn't correct its economical policies soon, it will fall. Which will suck for everyone, because they're a key player in world economics, and would cause a recession/depression in Europe, a halt in China's expansion and massive depression in South America.

9:02 am on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Aug. 2004 | 1000 Days Active
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norock


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Economically speaking, soon is a very relative term.

and it is impossible to determine whether or not it will fail. some say the national debt is bad, some say it doesnt matter, no one really knows.

2/3 of the monetary supply is digital, just numbers on computer screens. I think it would take a lot to make americas economy crash..

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12:23 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Dec. 2006 | 343 Days Active
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Apotheosis



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It would more or less take any large Asian bank saying "Hey, dude, show me the money".

12:25 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Aug. 2004 | 1000 Days Active
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norock


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And we would what, give it to them?

just because they say, Give me the money, doesnt mean we could.
thats not how it works.

they buy securities, we pay them back over many years with interest, we are able to do so buy selling other securities.
sure, if all foreign markets pulled out of our economy we'd have a recession, but i doubt we would"fall"

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12:59 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Dec. 2006 | 343 Days Active
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Apotheosis



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Or they can refuse to buy further securities.

Or the OPEP can just decide to make a complete switch to euros.


1:07 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Aug. 2004 | 1000 Days Active
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obvious child


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Quote: from norock at 10:23 am on Dec. 19, 2006

and it is impossible to determine whether or not it will fail. some say the national debt is bad, some say it doesnt matter, no one really knows.

Some debt is good as it stimulates the economy. Huge amounts of debt results in crowding out, in addition to ever increasing interest payments that reduce the gov't ability to provide services.  


2/3 of the monetary supply is digital, just numbers on computer screens. I think it would take a lot to make americas economy crash..

On the contrary, it is exteremely easy to crash our economy. Free market economies are based on consumer confidence. Remove that and the economy dies.


And we would what, give it to them?

just because they say, Give me the money, doesnt mean we could.
thats not how it works.


That's not how bonds work. Banks buy bonds with a set rate of interest and a date of delivery of principal. What the bank WILL do if it needs money or does not want the security is to sell it. Often at discount which drives down the price for Gov't issued bonds which reduces the ability of the Gov't to raise capital. This in turn reduces the value of the dollar. hence a massive sell off of US securities by Chinese and Japanese banks would effective destroy our economy. It would kill theirs as well, but that's not the point.


sure, if all foreign markets pulled out of our economy we'd have a recession, but i doubt we would"fall"

Given that the US gov't would go bankrupt in 2 months without access to foregin capital, yes we would fall. The bankruptcy of the gov't would effectively remove the US as a viable market.

Apotheosis: Some people believe that the US invaded Iraq because they were about to switch to petroeuros. I'll explain the petrodollar system and how it effectively overvalues the dollar if you want.

Post edited at 7:41 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 by obvious child

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7:37 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Sep. 2005 | 827 Days Active
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norock


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the economy falls into a depression or recession, but it will never up and die...

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7:41 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Dec. 2006 | 343 Days Active
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obvious child


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Quote: from norock at 5:41 pm on Dec. 19, 2006

the economy falls into a depression or recession, but it will never up and die...

if the framework for a economy doesn't exist, then economy doesn't exist. Granted, there will always be some transactions, but nothing on the scale before the loss of the gov't.

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10:19 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Sep. 2005 | 827 Days Active
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Apotheosis



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I'd heard about the Iraq petroeuro scenario. I'm hoping Chavez does the same, so we can get rid of him.

11:15 pm on Dec. 19, 2006 | Joined Aug. 2004 | 1000 Days Active
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